On Saturday 3 May 2025, Grimsby Town played their last league game of the 2024-25 season, against AFC Wimbledon. A win for Grimsby and they would have made the end of season playoffs at the expense of their opponents that day. But they didn’t, they lost 1-0. As the referee’s whistle blew at the end of the game the season for Grimsby was over.
The final league table will show over 46 league games Grimsby finished 9th out of 24 teams in League 2, with 68 points.
Last season — 2023-24 — Town finished 21st out of 24 teams, with 49 points, just above the relegation places. The season that just finished was an improvement of 12 places and 19 points.
Looking at the league table, sat just outside the playoff places, just missing out after a winner-takes-all last game of the season, unfashionable club, finished so lowly last season, etc etc that could look respectable, that should look respectable.
Now, about two months since the end of the season and a month from the start of the new season, I still scrunch my face up and think “why doesn’t it?”
It’s been a season I’ve seen a lot of. It’s the most games I went to for quite a few years. From the season opener at Fleetwood on a sunny August Saturday to the hiding at home against Swindon in the last games of the season, and lots in between. When I didn’t go to the games there were always ways to watch the matches on TV. Games that didn’t kick at 3pm on Saturdays were on Sky Sports. And Saturday 3pm games I wasn’t… I was in Amsterdam so could pay the club £10 to watch it online. (No piracy involved.) Overall I think I missed something like five league games — or endured 41 league games if you want the reverse of the equation.
To me it felt a weirdly erratic season, maybe because so many of the games I went to were defeats.
As the season’s gone on I’ve also seen a lot of interviews with the Grimsby manager David Artell. It’s become a Monday tradition, take a break from work and listen to the boss man. Regularly Artell has said how this season compares to the last, “we’re improving all the time”, “compared to the time last year”, you get the vibe, always an upwards curve.
It got me thinking about the numbers, what value is there, the outcomes even.
So, some numbers.
Of Town’s 46 league games they won 20, drew (or tied, whatever word you prefer) just 8 games, and lost 18 games. If you looked at all the other teams and sorted the league table on wins alone, 20 wins would put Grimsby as a top seven team. Doncaster, who finished top of the league, had 24 wins.
18 defeats. Out of 24 teams only 9 teams lost more. Cheltenham also lost 18 games. Let’s say that is 10 teams with a record that is the same as Grimsby’s or worse.
Drawn games: Grimsby had 8. The only team to draw less games was Morecambe, who finished 24th, bottom of the table — and were relegated to the league below because of that. There’s no team with 9 draws, two teams with 10 draws, one team with 11 draws. That’s a low number of draws and highly unusual for a team to finish so high.
Town scored 61 goals. 10th best. Town conceded 67 goals. 19th, um, best.
On those numbers alone, that feels an erratic season. Signs of effectiveness, signs of ineffectiveness.
So, let’s take another tack: When Artell says things have improved compared to last season let’s look at how the previous season ended.
Last year, Grimsby won 11 games. This year: won 20. 9 better. An improvement.
Last year, Grimsby drew 16 games. This year, drew 8. 8 less. Um, let’s come back to this.
Last year, Grimsby lost 19 games. This year, lost 18. 1 less. An improvement, just.
Last year, Grimsby scored: 57 goals. This year, scored 61. 4 more. An improvement, just.
Last year, Grimsby conceded 74 goals. This year, conceded 67. 7 less. An improvement, let’s say that.
Some very simple analysis comparing the two seasons: Town converted 8 draws and 1 loss into wins (gains of 16 league points and 3 points respectively). Town got better at converting draws into wins but our likelihood to lose remained the same.
At home, Grimsby had the 5th worst record in the league: W10, D3, L10, 33 points. Away, 5th best: W10 D5 L8, 35 points. Traditionally football fans expect their team’s home form to be strong. They’d also expect the away record to be worse than their home record. You’d be more than happy winning something near half your away games. So, our home form at Blundell Park was terrible. Playing away Grimsby were good.
The 20 wins over the season: In 14 games Town won by a single goal margin. 6 games were won by 2 goals or more. Wins tended to be squeaked and sneaked.
The 18 defeats: In 7 losses the margin of defeat was by a single goal, a narrow margin. 11 defeats were by 2 goals or more. Of those 11 defeats, in 8 Town conceded at least 3 goals, in 5 games the margin of defeat was at least 3 goals. When Town lost they tended to be routed.
I could keep trawling through results and league tables, looking for more and more stats, digging into things like number of players that scored, how goals were created how goals were conceded. I could go on and on.
However deep I go I’ll just come back to my initial vibe: Town were erratic.
But, does that matter?
Artell’s team might not have finished that high in the table with patterns I expected, they not have performed how I expected a team to perform, but how much does that matter?
Put all the numbers from the league performance together — 3 points for every win, 1 point for every draw for every team — and we’re back where we started: Town on 68 points placing them 9th in the table for the season.
If we were to say “it’s the end-of-season record that matters” then the outcome on a better league position and a higher points total shows improvement. David Artell is correct on that count. Things improved.
Rattling this out reminds me it’s not always about the numbers you find digging deeper. Sometimes it’s not about the vibe(s) you feel. They can help. They can also feel they skew the overall picture. Trust the team — and it’s always about the outcomes they achieve.